Fujifilm X-T6 in 2024? Let’s Talk about it!
After I have shared my Fujifilm 2024 – What’s Coming article, lots of you dropped me comments and emails, indicating that there should be also a Fujifilm X-T6 in 2024.
The reason why so many of you believe 2024 will be the year of Fujifilm X-T6, is because the X-T line got refreshed every two years:
- 2014 = X-T1
- 2016 = X-T2
- 2018 = X-T3
- 2020 = X-T4
- 2022 = X-T5
- 2024 = X-T6?
So an X-T6 has to come in 2024, right?
Well, it could be.
I have no rumors telling me it won’t come in 2024. So it’s possible.
But the list above does not really tell the whole story.
Take for example the X-T4 announcement (February 2020) and the X-T5 (November 2022).
If we look at the months, instead of only at the year, we can see that 33 months (almost 3 years!!!) passed between these two cameras.
You see?
What we really have to look at, is how many months passed between the various X-T* camera announcements.
So let’s look at it:
- January 2014 (X-T1) to July 2016 (X-T2) = 30 months
- July 2016 (X-T2) to September 2018 (X-T3) = 26 months
- September 2018 (X-T3) to February 2020 (X-T4) = 17 months (*special considerations below)
- February 2020 (X-T4) to November 2022 (X-T5) = 33 months
Now we can see that usually Fujifilm needs an average of almost 30 months to refresh the X-T* line, which means 2.5 years.
So, considering the fact that the X-T5 was announced in November and based on past X-T* announcements, we could expect a Fujifilm X-T6 in:
- May 2025 = average X-T* line refresh rate of 30 months
- January 2025 = fastest refresh of 26 months (X-T2 to X-T3)
- August 2025 = slowest refresh of 33 months (X-T4 to X-T5)
Ok, your attentive eye has noticed it: why do I ignore the only 17 months that passed between X-T3 and X-T4?
Well, because that’s a unique and exceptional case.
The unusually fast refresh between X-T3 and X-T4 was the only one that did not bring a new sensor/processor. The X-T4 is basically an X-T3 with IBIS, fully articulating screen and bigger battery.
The reason why Fujifilm took this exceptional decision was because, after the failed launch of the X-H1 in February 2018, Fujifilm needed time to figure out how to proceed with what was supposed to become their flagship, the X-H line.
But until then, a new flagship hybrid camera was urgently needed, with the new 26MP sensor, IBIS, fully articulating screen and bigger battery.
And since the X-H line was put on ice (but never canceled), the X-T* line had to step into this role.
The Fujifilm X-T4 was born out of urgency only 17 months after the X-T3, and it was forced to carry the flagship burden with all the consequences that came with it, such as the bigger size, heavier body and the fully articulating screen.
But now that the X-H2 cameras are finally out, the Fujifilm X-T* line could go back to its roots again with the wonderful Fujifilm X-T5, and just overall be again a more photography centric line at a lower price point and smaller footprint than the X-H cameras.
I hope this helps to understand why the short gap between the X-T3 and X-T4 release is a unique case in the X-T* line and can be ignored for the purpose of trying to evaluate the announcement of the X-T6 based on past X-T* camera releases.
Let me say it clearly again:
I have no rumors about the Fujifilm X-T6. So everything is possible. Maybe it will come tomorrow morning.
But based on Fujifilm’s history, I would not be overly confident to see any X-T6 coming in 2024. If Fujifilm sticks with their regular release cycle, it could come mid-2025. But that’s just statistics, no rumor.
I hope this clarifies why I did not talk about the Fujifilm X-T6 in my Fujifilm 2024 article.