The (slow) Rise of Mirrorless: “Non-Reflex” grows from less than 20% to about 25%! (CIPA shipment data 2014)

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Mirrorless vs dSLR

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The latest CIPA reports are online. You can download all the statistics at the CIPA site here, or go directly to the excellent summary and graphs made by Dicahub.

The reports confirm (once more) that shipments for all types of cameras are decreasing.

So let’s focus on the little good news for mirrorless shooters: Non-Reflex (*) is increasing when compared to the same month of previous year, while dSLRs decreased. Mirrorless is now at about 25% (until mid 2013 it was mostly under 20%) – see DicaHub graph above.

That’s a positive trend for mirrorless, but still not as positive as some companies expected. In fact, DicaHub reminds us how Panasonic forecasted mirrorless would reach 28% in 2014. Also Samsung’s prediction that mirrorless will sell better than dSLR in 3 years is a bold claim.

(*) Non-Reflex” includes cameras such as so-called mirrorless cameras, compact system cameras, rangefinder cameras with interchangeable lens and interchangeable unit system cameras, and similer cameras.

Mirrorless vs dSLR vs compact camera

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Lensvid Video Summary

 

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WILD RUMORS RELOADED: Organic Sensor in late 2015/early 2016 (for Panasonic), New Hybrid AF, 24MP X-PRO2, pancake lens NO aperture

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The Contax Hybrid Mount Camera with a combination of two bayonets (courtesy of fotocommunity)

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WILD RUMORS UDPATE

Yesterday I’ve shared a bunch of rumors that appeared on the Chinese forum dchome. Today it’s already time for an update

A Chinese FR-reader send me another translation and additional information shared by Forum member joofie. (and thanks also to those, who posted their translations and additions in the comments)

1. XF 35 1.4 version 2 focus speed will be faster than XF23 a little, and selling over USD500

2. New pancake lens XF20 or 18 probably will come with NO aperture ring and smaller than current XF18 a little bit

3. Fuji is performing a final evaluation of “Pay for parts upgrade” , as they decided Hi ended user can using their owned fuji machine in a longer period of time. 2014 already slow down their schedule to release new machine.

4. one of the spec of X-pro 2 is 24M pixel.

5. Organic sensor: Panasonic provide the production line and Fuji provide the patent and technology. [ADMIN: joofie says also (google translated) “differing only available time (P recorded in 2015 DEC / 2016 JAN)“. I think he is talking about the availability. I’ve dropped an email to the Chinese reader and asked if that’s correct. I will post an update as soon as I he replies]

6. Fuji already register their new hybrid focus.

7. New machine with no classic outlook had been developed, not target at Pro users.

8. There is a X-M2 developed but it will be replaced by another product. And, it will not coded as M2.

FYI, here is yesterday’s list (check out the whole post here)

1) X-Pro2 will not be launched on first quarter of 2015, but there are 2 SPEC… [FUJIRUMORS: It’s probably correct that the X-PRO2 won’t come in the first quarter. I’m not sure what “but there are 2 SPEC” means. Probably 2 versions (“species”).]

2) XF20 F2.8 (equal = 30MM / pancake) or XF18 F2.8(equal = 27MM / pancake), will be launching soon.

3) XF35 F1.4(II) , better IQ & bokeh & focus speed a bit faster than XF23, price over HK$ 4000 [FUJIRUMORS: there were rumors in 2014 about it. Apparently Fuji tested an APD version of it, but then dismissed it – source Fuji Manager]

4) OCT-DEC will be a big cannon show up (4XX) (*Forum ppl believe is 140 -400mm)

5) DUAL MOUNT PRODUCT may launch in mid of the year [FUJIRUMORS: My comment about this down below]

6) New phase auto focus system (can compete with DSLR), will come out in X-Mount. [FUJIRUMORS: why not? Sony’s bestseller, the A6000, shows the way]

7) High Speed Pro Flash light, synchronize rate improve to pro standard [FUJIRUMORS: New flash coming in spring]

8) Body will back light prevention setting system (2015 mid / year-end)

9) New fix lens camera will launching before March (” X ” 1 – 2 model) [FUJIRUMORS: He could mean the XQ2, since it was shared on the dchome forum before the official announcement of the XQ2]

10) X-M1 successor already develop, just do not know will launch or not

11) Fuji Japan still analyses a program that user by pay some amount of $$ and can upgrade the part (item (5)- (8) ). They hope user can use the model for longer time without refresh model too fast.

12) XF16 1.4 – Hot summer launching

13) google translated: “X-E3 has a row you wait for” [FUJIRUMORS: sounds like Fuji is debating (has a row) regarding the X-E2 successor, which eventually is expected to come in 2016, since, according to joofei… (see Nr.14)

14) X-E3 => 2016

stay tuned,
facebook, google+, RSS-feed and twitter

X-SERIES CAMERAS DEALS

X-T1 + 18-135 WR (save $200 – price $1699): BHphoto / AmazonUS / Adorama /

X-T1 + 18-55 (save $100 – price $1599): BHphoto / AmazonUS / Adorama /
X-T1 Black Body (save $100 – price $1199): BHphoto / AmazonUS / Adorama /
X-T1 Graphite Body (save $100 – price $1399): BHphoto / AmazonUS / Adorama /

X-E2 Body (save $100 – price $699): BHphoto / AmazonUS / Adorama /
X-E2 + 18-55 (save $100 – price $999): BHphoto / AmazonUS / Adorama /

X30 (save $100 – price $499): BHphoto / AmazonUS / Adorama /
XQ1 (save $100 – price $299): BHphoto / AmazonUS / Adorama

XF LENSES DEALS

XF 18-135mm (save $200 – price $699): BHphoto / AmazonUS / Adorama /
XF 18mm
(save $200 – price $399): BHphoto / AmazonUS / Adorama /
XF 60mm (save $200 – price $449): BHphoto / AmazonUS / Adorama /

XF 23mm (save $150 – price $749): BHphoto / AmazonUS / Adorama /
XF 56mm (save $150 – price $849): BHphoto / AmazonUS / Adorama /
XF 14mm (save $150 – price $749): BHphoto / AmazonUS / Adorama /
XF 10-24mm (save $150 – price $849): BHphoto / AmazonUS / Adorama /
XF 27mm (save $150 – price $299): BHphoto / AmazonUS / Adorama /

XF 35mm (save $100 – price $499): BHphoto / AmazonUS / Adorama /
XF 18-55mm (save $100 – price $599): BHphoto / AmazonUS / Adorama /
XF 55-200mm (save $100 – price $599): BHphoto / AmazonUS / Adorama /

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WILD RUMORS :: Fujifilm 2015 :: Dual Mount Product, New Pancake Lens, X-PRO2, X-E3 (2016) and more (source dchome)

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The Contax Hybrid Mount Camera with a combination of two bayonets (courtesy of fotocommunity)

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[UDPATE: there is an update to this post here, with additional rumors shared by joofie]

The wild rumors at dchome

First off: these rumors do NOT come from FR-sources, and I publish them 1:1 as they surfaced on the web. I say this because I’d love to prevent the usual comments that rumors of my sources are completely unreliable. Sure, in 2014 I’ve shared 14 wrong rumors… however, 14 wrong out of 85 verifiable rumors (this means 71 rumors were correct – 83.5% hit rate). So you see, I try to be as accurate as possible.

However, I opened this blog because I love the X-Series, but also because I like to speculate about rumors. So I think we can sometimes also discuss some rumors that sound a bit weird.

That being said…. let’s start:

The information was shared by a Forum Member called joofei at dchome (translated by a non native English speaking FR-reader – thanks). During the discussion on the forum, joofei continued to share more details. I’ve added them in the list (Nr.13-14) (I relied on google translator. If there is any Chinese reader who can make a more accurate translation, then just drop it in the comments)

1) X-Pro2 will not be launched on first quarter of 2015, but there are 2 SPEC… [FUJIRUMORS: It’s probably correct that the X-PRO2 won’t come in the first quarter. I’m not sure what “but there are 2 SPEC” means. Probably 2 versions (“species”).]

2) XF20 F2.8 (equal = 30MM / pancake) or XF18 F2.8(equal = 27MM / pancake), will be launching soon.

3) XF35 F1.4(II) , better IQ & bokeh & focus speed a bit faster than XF23, price over HK$ 4000 [FUJIRUMORS: there were rumors in 2014 about it. Apparently Fuji tested an APD version of it, but then dismissed it – source Fuji Manager]

4) OCT-DEC will be a big cannon show up (4XX) (*Forum ppl believe is 140 -400mm)

5) DUAL MOUNT PRODUCT may launch in mid of the year [FUJIRUMORS: My comment about this down below]

6) New phase auto focus system (can compete with DSLR), will come out in X-Mount. [FUJIRUMORS: why not? Sony’s bestseller, the A6000, shows the way]

7) High Speed Pro Flash light, synchronize rate improve to pro standard [FUJIRUMORS: New flash coming in spring]

8) Body will back light prevention setting system (2015 mid / year-end)

9) New fix lens camera will launching before March (” X ” 1 – 2 model) [FUJIRUMORS: He could mean the XQ2, since it was shared on the dchome forum before the official announcement of the XQ2]

10) X-M1 successor already develop, just do not know will launch or not

11) Fuji Japan still analyses a program that user by pay some amount of $$ and can upgrade the part (item (5)- (8) ). They hope user can use the model for longer time without refresh model too fast.

12) XF16 1.4 – Hot summer launching

13) google translated: “X-E3 has a row you wait for” [FUJIRUMORS: sounds like Fuji is debating (has a row) regarding the X-E2 successor, which eventually is expected to come in 2016, since, according to joofei… (see Nr.14)

14) X-E3 => 2016

A lot of stuff. For now I’ll just make a short comment about that “dual mount product“. Sounds like a camera that has the ability to attach current X-mount lenses but also lenses with a different mount… a sort of hybrid mount camera. Something like the mount of the Contax rangefinder made from the 1930ies to the 50ies, which was “in fact the combination of two bayonets.” (source Camerapedia)

Ok, now I have to fire off some emails. If I can debunk (or maybe confirm) any of these rumors, I’ll post an updated here on FujiRumors

stay tuned,
facebook, google+, RSS-feed and twitter

NEW X-DEALS

X-SERIES CAMERAS

X-T1 + 18-135 WR (save $200 – price $1699): BHphoto / AmazonUS / Adorama /

X-T1 + 18-55 (save $100 – price $1599): BHphoto / AmazonUS / Adorama /
X-T1 Black Body (save $100 – price $1199): BHphoto / AmazonUS / Adorama /
X-T1 Graphite Body (save $100 – price $1399): BHphoto / AmazonUS / Adorama /

X-E2 Body (save $100 –  price $699): BHphoto / AmazonUS / Adorama /
X-E2 + 18-55 (save $100 – price $999): BHphoto / AmazonUS / Adorama /

X30 (save $100 – price $499): BHphoto / AmazonUS / Adorama /
XQ1 (save $100 – price $299): BHphoto / AmazonUS / Adorama

XF LENSES

XF 18-135mm (save $200 –  price $699): BHphoto / AmazonUS / Adorama /
XF 18mm
(save $200 – price $399):  BHphoto / AmazonUS / Adorama /
XF 60mm (save $200 – price $449): BHphoto / AmazonUS / Adorama /

XF 23mm (save $150 –  price $749): BHphoto / AmazonUS / Adorama /
XF 56mm (save $150 – price $849): BHphoto / AmazonUS / Adorama /
XF 14mm (save $150 – price $749): BHphoto / AmazonUS / Adorama /
XF 10-24mm (save $150 – price $849): BHphoto / AmazonUS / Adorama /
XF 27mm (save $150 – price $299): BHphoto / AmazonUS / Adorama /

XF 35mm (save $100 – price $499): BHphoto / AmazonUS / Adorama /
XF 18-55mm (save $100 – price $599): BHphoto / AmazonUS / Adorama /
XF 55-200mm (save $100 – price $599): BHphoto / AmazonUS / Adorama /

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MIRRORLESS MARKET IN JAPAN: Fujifilm still a small (but cool ;) ) niche. However, X-series market share increased in 2014!

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So what do you want first, the bad news or the good news? Let’s start with the bad news.

But before we start, just a quick note about the graph. For the first time, BCNRanking decided to base their statistics not only on the Top 20 Products, but they consider the “Brand Shares”. Therefore, in the graph above made by DicaHub, you can see it divided in two parts, the Top 20 Products (until 2013) and the Brand Shares (in 2014)

The Bad

According to the latest BCNRanking, the Fujifilm mirrorless market share is of just 5% (in Japan). Ricoh, Nikon, Canon, Sony, Panasonic and Olympus sell more mirrorless cameras than Fujfilm.

The Good

But let’s put the figures into the proper context. While it’s true that Fujifilm is still the smallest (but coolest ;) ) CSC system in this ranking, there are signs of hope in 2014. Let’s take a look at the 2 different rankings…  and keep always in mind that these numbers are for the Japanese CSC camera market only (which is the biggest mirrorless market, though)!

Also, keep in mind that more market shares doesn’t necessary mean more profits.

THE 2010 to 2014 YEAR RANKING
(see graph above)

Fujifilm didn’t appear at all in the BCNRanking until 2013 included. But now, in 2014, the X-series gained 5% market share. Looking at the evolution starting from 2010, we can see how only Sony, Canon and Fuji are increasing, while Olympus, Panasonic and Nikon are decreasing.

THE 2014 MONTHLY RANKING
(see graph at the bottom)

If we take a closer look month to month ranking in 2014, we will see different results. In this ranking Olympus, Panasonic, Canon and Fujifilm are increasing, while Sony and Nikon decreasing.

Interesting also to note that Canon said that their goal is to get the biggest mirrorless shares until 2017… so they will soon attack aggressively the CSC market. A Full Frame CSC-Canon is rumored to come… and more. Just check out the CanonWatch rumor section to read more about it.

So these are the statistics… now it’s up to you to make your considerations in the comments.

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the 2014 Month to Month ranking

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